PREDICTING CASES AND DEATHS IN EUROPE FROM COVID-19 TESTS AND COUNTRY POPULATIONS-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

PREDICTING CASES AND DEATHS IN EUROPE FROM COVID-19 TESTS AND COUNTRY POPULATIONS

Published:2020-12 Issue:04 Volume:15 Page:2050017
ISSN:2010-4952
Container-title:Annals of Financial Economics
language:en
Short-container-title:Ann. Finan. Econ.

Author:

ALLEN DAVID E.¹²³,MCALEER MICHAEL⁴⁵⁶⁷⁸

Affiliation:

1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sydney, Australia

2. Department of Finance, Asia University, Taiwan

3. School of Business and Law, Edith Cowan University, Australia

4. Department of Finance, College of Management, Asia University, Taiwan

5. Department of Bioinformatics and Medical Engineering, College of Information and Electrical Engineering, Asia University, Taiwan

6. Discipline of Business Analytics, University of Sydney, Business School, Australia

7. Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands

8. Department of Economic Analysis and ICAE, Complutense University of Madrid, Spain

Abstract

The paper presents a critical analysis of the European spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes the COVID-19 disease across 48 European countries and territories, including the Monaco and Andorra principalities and Vatican City. Simple cross-sectional regressions, using country populations, are able to predict quite accurately both the total number of cases and deaths, which cast doubt on measures aimed at controlling the disease via lockdowns. This throws into sharp contrast the relative effectiveness of the attempts to risk manage the spread of the virus by ‘flattening the curve’ of the speed of transmission, and the efficacy of lockdowns in terms of the spread of the disease and death rates. The algorithmic techniques, results and analysis presented in the paper should prove useful to the medical and health professions, science advisers and risk management and decision making of healthcare by state, regional and national governments in all countries in Europe.

Publisher

World Scientific Pub Co Pte Lt

Subject

Economics and Econometrics,Finance,Business and International Management

Link

https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdf/10.1142/S2010495220500177

Reference7 articles.

1. Is the lockdown important to prevent the COVID-19 pandemic? Effects on psychology, environment and economy-perspective

2. Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures

3. Quantile Regression

4. The Economic Cost of COVID Lockdowns: An Out-of-Equilibrium Analysis

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1. EDITORIAL STATEMENT IN HONOR OF PROFESSOR MICHAEL MCALEER;Annals of Financial Economics;2021-09