Source Modeling for Predicting Ground Motions and Permanent Displacements Very Close to the Fault Trace

Abstract

A conventional “recipe” for strong ground motion prediction has been applied to the seismic fault (deep fault; located within seismogenic layer). In order to perform assessments of strong ground motions and permanent displacements at sites very close to the fault trace, we proposed the method of modeling that takes the entire ruptured fault from the ground surface to the seismic fault into account. Our approach was validated by the simulation of observed records obtained at stations very close to the fault trace of the mainshock of the 2016 Kumamoto Japan, earthquake (Mw7.1). Also, through the ground motion assessment performed for a hypothetical strike-slip fault with a 90[Formula: see text] dip angle, we found that adding the shallow fault had virtually no effect on acceleration time history, but it had a clear effect on the fault-parallel component of velocity and displacement time histories in the area close to the fault trace.