THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON NOMADIC LIVESTOCK HUSBANDRY IN MONGOLIA

Abstract

This study conducts cross-sectional analysis to investigate impact of climate change on livestock sector in Mongolia using data gathered from a household survey and aggregate soum (district) level data. The soum-level analysis reveals the marginal effect of precipitation has a positive effect on livestock/ha up to 26[Formula: see text]mm/mo and thereafter a harmful effect. The marginal effect of warming on livestock/ha is not significant until annual temperatures exceed 0.4[Formula: see text]C whereupon warming is strictly harmful. The household-level analysis suggests warming will decrease earnings per animal while overall earnings per household increases with a small change in climate but declines with larger changes. However, the household data also suggests warming would increase the total value of livestock. The results of the different analyses are therefore conflicting suggesting one or more of the analyses are plagued by missing variables.