SCENARIOS FOR THE DEPLOYMENT OF CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE IN THE POWER SECTOR IN A PORTFOLIO OF MITIGATION OPTIONS

Abstract

Using the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, we explore factors influencing carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment in power generation and its role in mitigating carbon emissions. We find that in the 2∘C scenario with EPPA’s base-case technology cost and performance assumptions, CCS plays an important role in the second half of the century: by 2100 CCS is applied to almost 40% of world electricity production, with a third coming from coal with CCS and the other two-thirds from gas with CCS. Results on CCS deployment depend on the assumed fraction of carbon captured in CCS power plants, as emissions constraints get tighter and the carbon price rises. Adding options for higher capture fractions or offsetting uncaptured emissions leads to greater deployment of CCS than in the 2∘C base case. We provide a sensitivity analysis by making favorable assumptions for CCS, nuclear and renewables. We also explore regional differences in the deployment of CCS. We find that US and Europe mostly rely on gas CCS, whereas China relies on coal CCS and India pursues both options. We also assess how these projections align with assessment of CO2 storage potential, and find that storage potential is larger than storage demand at both global and regional scales. Ultimately, we find that under stringent mitigation scenarios, the power sector relies on a mix of technological options, and the conditions that favor a particular mix of technologies differ by region.