AN ECONOMY-WIDE ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY IN BANGLADESH

Abstract

Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change (CC) with higher temperatures reducing crop yields and sea level rise decreasing arable land supply. The Government of Bangladesh aspires to offer its people a comparable standard of living to that of middle-income countries by 2021. Bangladesh's population will reach 247 million by 2050 and GDP is projected to grow annually by 7.9%. With increasing population density, greater demand for resources, and CC impacts, adaptation and mitigation strategies will be required for agricultural output to meet growing food demand. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model linked with a food security module to explore CC impacts on agriculture and food security. Although CC impacts had a relatively small effect on GDP, reducing it by $29,925 million Taka (-0.11%) by 2030, agricultural sector impacts were felt more acutely, reducing output by -1.23%, increasing imports by 1.52%, and reducing total caloric consumption by 17%, with some households remaining underfed due to inequitable food distribution. Evidence generated here can guide policy to ensure economic growth contributes to meeting national development and food security targets.