MODELING THE RISK AND RETURN RELATION CONDITIONAL ON MARKET VOLATILITY AND MARKET CONDITIONS

Author:

GALAGEDERA DON U. A.1,FAFF ROBERT2

Affiliation:

1. Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University, PO Box 197, Caulfield East, Victoria 3145, Australia

2. Department of Accounting and Finance, Monash University, Clayton, VIC 3800, Australia

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the risk-return relation varies, depending on changing market volatility and up/down market conditions. Three market regimes based on the level of conditional volatility of market returns are specified — "low", "neutral" and "high". The market model is extended to allow for these three market regimes and a three-beta asset-pricing model is developed. For a set of US industry sector indices using a cross-sectional regression, we find that the beta risk premium in the three market volatility regimes is priced. These significant results are uncovered only in the pricing model that accommodates up/down market conditions.

Publisher

World Scientific Pub Co Pte Lt

Subject

General Economics, Econometrics and Finance,Finance

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