A Combination Weighting Method for the Risk Evaluation of Water Saving Management Contract

Abstract

At present, the shortage of water resources has severely restricted the sustainable development of economy in China, and water saving management contract (WSMC) is an important measure to effectively alleviate the problem of water shortage. However, the complexity of WSMC projects makes it difficult for water saving service enterprises to distinguish the risk of different projects. Therefore, based on combination weighting method, this paper tries to establish a risk evaluation method for WSMC projects. First, the risk evaluation index system of WSMC is constructed via the hierarchical holographic modeling method. Second, to evaluate the risk of different projects, a score function is defined to reflect the statistical dispersion of the comprehensive risk of each project, and then a multiple objective optimization problem is constructed. Third, after solving this optimization problem, a comprehensive risk score function is defined, and then a combination weighting method for the risk evaluation of WSMC project, which effectively incorporate expert knowledge and historical data, is established combing with the analytic hierarchy process and anti-entropy method. Finally, numerical examples are given to verify the feasibility of the proposed method. The proposed method not only enriches the research on the risk evaluation method of WSMC projects, but also provides reference for the project selection of water saving service enterprises.