Following-Up on Uncertain Environmental Assessment Predictions: The Case of Offshore Oil Projects and Seabirds Off Newfoundland and Labrador

Abstract

Environmental assessments (EAs) predict project environmental effects with varying degrees of certainty. Articulating prediction uncertainty and linking it to EA follow-up is a best practice for reducing uncertainty. This study examines predictions from Canadian oil projects off Newfoundland and Labrador between 1985 and 2012 concerning seabirds, the valued ecosystem component identified as the most vulnerable to oil exploitation in an area frequented by millions of migratory birds. We asked if these EA predictions: (a) reported uncertainty ratings;  (b) for those reporting medium and high uncertainty ratings whether the predictions were addressed by EA follow-up; and (c) if prediction uncertainty was reduced by EA follow-up and reflected in subsequent EAs. Prediction uncertainty reporting was rare and uncertainties were not resolved through EA follow-up. Assumptions of negligible or low environmental effects on seabirds off Newfoundland and Labrador from offshore oil and gas extraction have been supported through decades by sustaining uncertainty.