A spatial-temporal approach for traffic status analysis and prediction based on Bi-LSTM structure

Abstract

Urban traffic control has become a big issue to help traffic management in recent years. With data explosion, Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) is developing rapidly. ITS is an advanced data-based method for traffic control, which requires timely and effective information supply. This research aims at providing real-time and accurate traffic flow data by intelligent prediction method. Applying multiple road traffic flow data of the Caltrans Performance Measurement System (PeMS) and separating the time series, the mechanism of spatial-temporal differences was taken into consideration. Based on the basic Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, an improved LSTM model with Dropout and Bi-structure (Bi-LSTM) for traffic flow prediction was presented. In the prediction process, we applied three models including the improved Bi-LSTM model, Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) model and Linear Regression in the experiment, and made a comparison from aspects of model structure complexity, operating efficiency and prediction accuracy. To validate the portability of the prediction model, the features of traffic flow from different datasets were further analyzed. The experimental results show that the improved Bi-LSTM model performs best in traffic flow prediction with comprehensive rationality, which reaches an accuracy of about 92% when considering temporal differences. Particularly, the specific factors of traffic situations and locations which is more applicable to be predicted by the improved Bi-LSTM model are summarized considering spatial differences. This research proposes an advanced and accurate model to provide real-time and short-term traffic flow prediction data, which is of great help to intelligent traffic control. Considering the mechanism between model and road traffic properties, the results suggest that it is more applicable in urban commercial area.