Delay propagation cellular automata model based on max-plus algebra for robustness evaluations of non-periodic train operation plans

Abstract

Based on discrete-event dynamic system theory, train operation events in high-speed railway transportation systems are regarded as the basic elements of these dynamic systems. For non-periodic timetable railways in China, based on a max-plus algebra method, a delay propagation cellular automata model is proposed to evaluate the robustness of high-speed train operation plans. The cellular automata evolution rules that can reproduce the delay propagation state of trains mainly consider train safety headway constraints, passenger transfer constraints, and electric multiple unit (EMU) connection constraints. A simulation analysis of actual cases is performed. The simulation results show that the model can be used to evaluate the robustness of the train operation plan. The numerical results show that in the preparation of train operation plans, the proposed model can predict which trains have significant influences on delays in advance and improve the possibility of reducing the occurrence of delays to maintain high-quality service.