Figure-of-Merit for a Long-Term Survivorship of a Species Determined from the Short-Term Mortality Rate of Its Individual Organisms

Abstract

The two analytical (“mathematical”) probabilistic predictive models considered in this analysis suggest that (1) the nonrandom time-derivative of the long-term mortality rate at a rather arbitrary initial moment of time for a particular type of species of interest can be viewed as a suitable physical or biological criterion, a sort of a figure of merit (FoM), of its long-term viability/survivorship and that (2) this derivative can be determined as the variance of the random mortality rate for the significantly shorter, of course, lifespan of the individual organisms that the type of species as a whole, addressed by the first model, is comprised of. This suggestion is obtained as a modification and extension of and as an “analogy” to a concept that the author developed earlier in application to microelectronics products. So, it is assumed in our approach that the long-term survivorship of a species comprised of numerous individual organisms is analogous to the long-term performance of an electronic product comprised of numerous mass-produced components. In the original research, it was shown that the time-derivative at the initial moment of time of the nonrandom infant mortality portion (IMP) of the bathtub curve (BTC) for an electronic product is, in effect, the variance of the random failure rate (RFR) of the mass-produced components that this product is comprised of, and it is assumed that such an analogy is applicable also to the long-term survivorship of a species comprised of numerous individual organisms. The larger this variance, the shorter is the expected long-term lifetime (survivorship) of the species as a whole. Future work should be focused, first of all, on the verification of the trustworthiness of our basic assumption for different species, including humans, and on the accumulation of statistical data for long-term survivorship of various species and their existing or future habitats, with consideration of the roles of gravity, temperature, level of radiation, attributes of the atmosphere, if any, etc., as well as on calculating lifespan variances for the organisms that the species of interest are comprised of.