A FUZZY MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF NUCLEAR STABILITY

Abstract

We use techniques from fuzzy mathematics to develop metrics for measuring how well the US is achieving its overarching national security goal: to protect itself, its allies and its friends from both nuclear attack and coercive pressures by states possessing nuclear weapons. The metrics are linear equations assigning weights to each of the six components of the overarching goal. These weights are based on expert opinions. We determine the degree to which the experts consider certain goals as the most important. We conclude by examining the degree of agreement among experts.