Entropy-Based Two-Dimensional Software Reliability Growth Modeling for Open-Source Software Incorporating Change-Point

Abstract

This study provides an analytical model to predict the fixing pattern of issues in the open-source software (OSS) packages to assist developers in software development and maintenance. Moreover, the continuous evolution of software due to bugs removal, new features addition or existing features modification results in the source code complexity. The proposed model quantifies the complexity in the source code using the Shannon entropy measure. In addition, the issues fixing growth behavior is viewed as a function of continuation time of the software in the field environment and amount of uncertainty or complexity present in the source code. Therefore, a two-dimensional function called Cobb–Douglas production function is applied to model the intensity function of the issues fixing rate. Furthermore, the rate of fixing the different issue types is considered variable that may alter after certain time points. Thus, this study incorporates the concept of multiple change-points to predict and assess the fixing behavior of issues in the software system. The performance of the proposed model is validated by fitting the proposed model to the actual issues data of three open-source projects. Findings of the data analysis exhibit excellent prediction and estimation capability of the model.