Stability analysis of a pine wood nematode prevention and control model with delay

Abstract

Pine wilt disease is a destructive forest disease with strong infectivity, a wide spread range and high difficulty in prevention and control. Since controlling Monochamus alternatus, the vector of pine wood nematode (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) can reduce the occurrence of pine wilt disease efficiently, the parasitic natural enemy of M. alternatus, Dastarcus helophoroides, is introduced in this paper. Considering the influence of parasitic time of D. helophoroides on the control effect, based on the mutualistic symbiosis and parasitic relationship among pine wood nematode, M. alternatus and D. heloporoides, this paper establishes a pine wood nematode prevention and control model with delay. Then, the stability of positive equilibrium and the existence of Hopf bifurcation are discussed. Besides, we obtain the normal form of Hopf bifurcation by applying the multiple time scales method. Finally, numerical simulations with two sets of meaningful parameters selected by means of statistical analysis are carried out to support the theoretical findings. Through the comparative analysis of numerical simulations, the factors affecting the control effect of pine wilt disease are obtained, and some suggestions are put forward for practical control in the forest.