Threshold conditions for a family of epidemic dynamic models for malaria with distributed delays in a non-random environment

Abstract

A family of deterministic SEIRS epidemic dynamic models for malaria is presented. The family type is determined by a general functional response for the nonlinear incidence rate of the disease. Furthermore, the malaria models exhibit three random delays — the incubation periods of the plasmodium inside the female mosquito and human hosts, and also the period of effective acquired natural immunity against the disease. Insights about the effects of the delays and the nonlinear incidence rate of the disease on (1) eradication and (2) persistence of malaria in the human population are obtained via analyzing and interpreting the global asymptotic stability results of the disease-free and endemic equilibrium of the system. The basic reproduction numbers and other threshold values for malaria are calculated, and superior threshold conditions for the stability of the equilibria are found. Numerical simulation results are presented.