Dynamics of an Echinococcosis transmission model

Abstract

In this paper, we propose an Echinococcosis model with logistic growth. After giving the basic reproductive number [Formula: see text], we prove that [Formula: see text] can be used to govern the threshold dynamics of the model: if [Formula: see text], the disease will go to extinction, while if [Formula: see text], the disease will persist. Based on the data of Echinococcosis in Ürümqi, Xinjiang, China during 2006–2016, we estimate the parameters in the model and calculate that [Formula: see text] (95% CI [0.767, 4.327]). The results show that Echinococcosis is endemic in Ürümqi, China. In addition, we obtain that [Formula: see text]% and [Formula: see text]%, which indicates that the model has certain reliability and rationality. Furthermore, we carry out the sensitivity analysis of the model parameters to identify the key factors affecting the prevalence of Echinococcosis, and the effective control efforts are suggested focusing on reducing the proportion rate from sheep to dogs and increasing the recovery rate of dogs to curb the prevalence of Echinococcosis in Ürümqi, China.