A regime-switching stochastic SIR epidemic model with a saturated incidence and limited medical resources

Abstract

The stochastic switching SIR epidemic model with saturated incidence and limited medical treatment is investigated in this paper. By using Lyapunov methods and Itô formula, we first prove that the system has a unique global positive solution with any positive initial value. Then combining inequality technique and the ergodic property of Markov switching, the sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the disease are established. The results demonstrate that increasing medical resources and improving supply efficiency can accelerate the transition from the persistent state to the extinct state. Meanwhile, the high incidence rate will slow down the extinction of the disease. Specially, the switching noise can induce the system to toggle between the extinct and persistent states. Finally, some numerical simulations are carried out to confirm the analytical results.