The seasonal influenza transmission dynamic and the correlation analysis with meteorology in Beijing

Abstract

Based on the transmission mechanism of seasonal influenza, this paper establishes a SEIMHRS model with hospital-visiting behavior and periodic transmission rate, and then analyzes the existence and stability of disease-free and endemic periodic solutions theoretically. Taking the epidemic of seasonal influenza during 2013–2018 in Beijing and conducting parameter estimation, we derive its basic reproduction ratio [Formula: see text] is 1.0065. Then we concentrate on the correlation between time-varying transmission rate of influenza and change pattern of three meteorology indices for the first time. The results novelly show that there exists a synchronization phenomenon between the transmission rate and variation pattern of average atmospheric pressure and that there is an anti-synchronism phenomenon between that of the average temperature. Whereas it only shows a normal phase difference with the variation pattern of relative humidity. Finally we advocate emphasis on the effect of variation trend of meteorology on influenza prediction.