Control dengue with Wolbachia: Insights from a two-strain vector-host model with larval competition

Abstract

Due to deficient treatments and vaccines for dengue viruses, dengue control mainly depends on controlling mosquitoes. Suppressing wild mosquito population size by releasing male-only Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes into the field has become an eco-friendly alternative for traditional mosquito control methods. By assuming an ideal continuous proportional release strategy, we formulate a two-strain vector-host model incorporating larval competition to describe the affected cross-transmission dynamics of two dengue viruses serotypes. Moreover, antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) and temporal cross-immunity are considered in this model. Theoretical analysis including the well-posedness, the existence and local stability of dengue-free equilibria in terms of the basic reproduction numbers is conducted. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the basic reproduction numbers are most sensitive to the adult female mortality rate and mosquito bite rate. As expected, intensifying larval competition can prevent the spread of dengue viruses. Unexpectedly, increasing the release ratio can delay the peak time while increase the peak level of both primary and secondary infections. To efficiently eliminate dengue outbreaks, other control methods such as spraying larvicides/adult insecticides and avoiding mosquito bites should be employed simultaneously during the time period gained by releasing Wolbachia-carrying males.