ON MODELING THE GROWTH DYNAMICS OF A STAGE STRUCTURED POPULATION

Abstract

A Lagrangian modeling approach is applied to the numerical simulation of the temporal dynamics of a stage-structured population. The growth dynamics is determined only by the main biological processes: development of an individual, mortality, reproduction. Different approaches in modeling the development process of an individual are implemented: stochastic advection-diffusion models (backward–forward dispersion models), and stochastic development models where regression effects, defined as negative development on the status of an individual, are forbidden (forward dispersion models). Some properties of the residence times of an individual in a stage are investigated: in particular, their role in the calibration of the development models and in the estimation of some parameters introduced in the model equation. As a study case a multi-stage pelagic copepod population is considered. Trying to separate the effects of the main biological processes on the temporal dynamics, numerical simulations have been carried out in some idealized situations: first only the development of the individuals, neglecting mortality and reproduction, is considered; then the mortality process is introduced, and finally both the mortality and reproduction processes. The results of the numerical simulations, are compared and discussed.