Modeling the transmission of Buruli ulcer in fluctuating environments

Abstract

The transmission dynamics of Buruli ulcer (BU) largely depends on environmental changes. In this paper a deterministic model for the transmission of BU in fluctuating environments is proposed. The model incorporates periodicity in the disease transmission pathways and the Mycobacterium ulcerans density that are thought to vary seasonally. Two reproduction numbers, the time-averaged reproduction number [Formula: see text] and the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text], are determined and compared. It is shown that the time-averaged reproduction underestimates the number of infections. Numerical simulations confirmed that if [Formula: see text] the infection is sustained seasonally. The model outcome suggests that environmental fluctuations should be taken into consideration in designing policies aimed at BU control and management.