ASSESSING IMPACTS OF ENERGY TRANSITION ON ENERGY SECURITY OF CHINA: STRATEGIES AND CHALLENGES

Abstract

This study pioneers in quantitatively evaluating policies and commercial strategies of China to facilitate its coal-to-gas transition, concerning their impacts on energy security, especially for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import dependency and cost-effectiveness. An econometric approach is developed to examine the impacts of natural gas domestic production expansions, pipeline import expansions, and LNG price volatilities on LNG import. Empirical evidence reveals two challenges: (1) insufficient growth in domestic gas production to substitute and reduce import volumes via LNG shipping; (2) under increased import prices from major spot markets, LNG import volumes continued increasing, which implies cost ineffectiveness.