THE EFFECTS OF CHINESE POLICY UNCERTAINTY ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTPUT AND TRADE MARKETS

Abstract

This paper examines the international effects of Chinese policy uncertainty shock. Using the factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model which can accommodate several economic variables from multiple countries, we model Chinese policy uncertainty jointly with three latent factors extracted from industrial production index, import value and export value. The results reveal that the change of one standard deviation of Chinese economic policy uncertainty (EPU) has a negative interference effect on global trade markets and industrial production, and so does the fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU). However, the impact of Chinese trade policy and monetary policy on three latent factors is not statistically significant. A country-level analysis shows that due to the heterogeneity of the economic structure and trade structure of each economy, countries have different responses to the uncertainty of Chinese economic policy. In particular, the extent to which imports and exports of each economy are affected is asymmetric.