DOES THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE TWIN DEFICITS VARY OVER TIME? EVIDENCE FROM A BOOTSTRAP ROLLING WINDOW APPROACH

Author:

LIU TIE-YING1,GU ZI-CHEN1

Affiliation:

1. School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, No. 3, Shangyuancun, Haidian District, Beijing 100044, P. R. China

Abstract

This paper uses the bootstrap rolling window approach to analyze the dynamic causal relationship between the fiscal deficit and the trade deficit in the US from 1901 to 2018. We find the origination and termination of each causality period by considering the structural breaks. The results show that the fiscal deficit had a positive impact on the trade deficit from 1946 to 1956, from 1982 to 1998, in 2000 and from 2002 to 2008, which is in accord with the results of the Mundell–Fleming model, while it had a negative impact from 1937 to 1945. The trade deficit had a positive impact on the fiscal deficit from 1940 to 1942, from 1959 to 1975 and from 1981 to 1994, mainly due to the World War II, oil crisis and trade friction with Japan. It means that the fiscal policy of American federal government can affect the external imbalance.

Funder

National Office for Philosophy and Social Sciences

Publisher

World Scientific Pub Co Pte Lt

Subject

Economics and Econometrics

Cited by 1 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3