PROJECTED CHANGE IN DISTRIBUTION PATTERNS OF CROP WILD RELATIVES UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE: A CASE STUDY OF THE FERTILE CRESCENT

Abstract

The principal aim of this paper is to evaluate alterations in the geographical distributions of priority crop wild relatives (CWRs) within the Fertile Crescent Region. The analysis encompasses a comprehensive set of 441 priority CWRs. To compile species distribution information, a meticulously constructed database of occurrence records was utilized. The process involved gathering current and projected climate data from WorldClim to facilitate the evaluation. This study employed MaxEnt version 3.4.1 for species distribution modeling (SDM) considering two distinct dispersal scenarios. One scenario proposed that the CWR taxa were incapable of adapting to their preferred weather conditions, while the other scenario suggested that CWR could track suitable climates to ensure their survival. The generated maps underwent processing in DIVA-GIS version 7.5. Notably, Aegilops bicornis, a wild relative of bread wheat, and Triticum monococcum, a wild relative of wheat, are anticipated to face substantial impacts due to climate change. Specifically, the dispersal of T. monococcum is predicted to shift toward the north, where new suitable areas are expected to emerge in Northern Iraq. Conversely, Cicer bijugum, a wild relative of chickpea, Vicia grandiflora, a wild relative of common vetch, and Beta corolliflora, a wild relative of sugar beet, are projected to experience a comparatively slight impact from climate change, as their potential distribution areas are estimated to diminish. Overall, this study foresees a decline in CWRs across the Fertile Crescent, particularly noting reduced habitats for the CWRs in Turkey.