Bifurcation Analysis of a Fractional-Order Simplicial SIRS System Induced by Double Delays

Abstract

In this paper, a fractional-order susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model is studied, focusing on delay effects and high-order interactions. Two types of time delays are considered to describe latent period and healing cycle, respectively. From the ecological point of view, we found that the increasing delays caused by either the latent period or the healing cycle lead to the periodic outbreak of disease. The finding provided us with an important implication to preventing periodic outbreaks of disease by reducing the time delay, like accelerating the healing process with effective medication and medical intervention. Specifically, taking the time delays as bifurcation parameters, the stability of endemic equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcation are studied by analyzing the characteristic equation of the SIRS model. From a general point of view, based on the establishment of a fractional-order SIRS model, we found that the order of the fractional order is critical for describing the dynamic behavior of the model. Typically, the decrease of the order appears to bring about the disappearance of the periodic phenomenon (i.e. the periodic oscillation) of the originally stable system.