Confidence Domains in the Analysis of Noise-Induced Transition to Chaos for Goodwin Model of Business Cycles

Abstract

Stochastically forced Goodwin model of business cycles is considered. In a multistable zone, we study the phenomena of noise-induced transitions and chaotization. To clarify a probabilistic mechanism of these phenomena found numerically, we apply a semi-analytical method based on the stochastic sensitivity function technique and confidence domains. Using elaborated method, we estimate a critical value of the noise intensity corresponding to the onset of chaos.