A compartmental model to investigate the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic: A case study in five countries

Abstract

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections, was declared a pandemic by the WHO on March 12, 2020. By April 10, 2020, it has spread to almost 215 UN Territories, affected more than 1,600,000 people, and become fatal to more than 100,000 people. We propose a compartmental model to investigate the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and analyze the effects of governments and health officials’ intervention strategies, using data in the USA, Italy, Spain, Germany, and France. These are the countries with the most confirmed cases of the COVID-19 as of April 11, 2020. We perform parameter estimations, sensitivity, and predictive analysis and compare the COVID-19 trend in these understudy countries. Based on the model, we compute the basic reproduction number of the pandemic in these countries. The results indicate that the most sensitive parameters are the contact rate and degree of intervention; these parameters have high value in containing the pandemic. The basic reproduction number in each of the countries under study is more than unity. Based on our findings, the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to spread; but higher compliance with the intervention strategies will help minimize the disease’s spread.