Modeling and analyzing the impact of temperature and rainfall on mosquito population dynamics over Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa

Abstract

Malaria parasites are strongly dependent on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; for this reason, mosquito population dynamics are a crucial determinant of malaria risk. However, temperature and rainfall play a significant role in both aquatic and adult stages of the Anopheles. Consequently, it is important to understand the biology of malaria vector mosquitoes in the study of malaria transmission. In this study, we develop a climate-based, ordinary-differential-equation model to analyze how rainfall and temperature determine mosquito population size. In the model, we consider in detail the influence of ambient temperature on gonotrophic and sporogonic cycles over Amajuba District, Kwazulu-Natal Province, South Africa. In particular, we further use the model to simulate the spatial distribution of the mosquito biting rate over the study region. Our results reflect high seasonality of the population of An. gambiae over the region and also demonstrate the influence of climatic factors on the mosquito population dynamics.