MODELING THE DYNAMICS OF COVID-19 TRANSMISSION IN INDIA: SOCIAL DISTANCING, REGIONAL SPREAD AND HEALTHCARE CAPACITY

Abstract

In the new paradigm of health-centric governance, policymakers are in constant need of appropriate metrics to determine suitable policies in a non-arbitrary fashion. To this end, in this paper, a compartmentalized model for the transmission of COVID-19 is developed, with a socially distanced compartment added to the model. The modification allows for administrators to quantify the extent to which voluntary social distancing norms are followed, and address restrictions accordingly. Modifications are also made to incorporate inter-region migration, and suitable metrics are proposed to quantify the impact of migration on the rise of cases. The healthcare capacity is modeled and a method is developed to study the consequences of the saturation of the healthcare system. The model and related measures are used to study the nature of the transmission and spread of COVID-19 in India, and appropriate insights are drawn.