ROLE OF MEDIA COVERAGE IN MITIGATING AN EPIDEMIC OUTBREAK: AN OPTIMAL CONTROL MODEL

Abstract

Flu is an acute respiratory infection caused by the influenza virus. The outbreak usually occurs every year in temperate region during the fall and winter seasons, but it is present year-round in tropics. Perceived risk of infection, affordability and lack of awareness among the population results in a low level of vaccination coverage. To control disease transmission and promote vaccination, public health officials use media coverage to spread awareness on vaccine safety, vaccine coverage, disease prevalence in the population through public health websites, advertisements, and other social media web pages. Media coverage acts as an incentive as it helps to decrease overall transmission potential and also at the same time increases the vaccination coverage in the population. Since the public health department has a limited budget, it needs to make optimum allocation of its effort to reduce the total cost of infection. Our paper investigates the effect of media coverage using SIR model of disease transmission. We look at three possible functional relationships — linear, exponential, and hyperbolic — the way media coverage may affect the disease transmission and vaccination rate. We derive necessary conditions of optimal solution using Optimal Control Theory and Pontryagin Maximum Principle (PMP) to minimize the total cost for infection. Analysis of our paper demonstrates that the cost of optimal management is four times less than the cost of constant control effort, and putting more effort into reducing transmission is optimal rather than an effort to increase vaccination at the beginning of the outbreak. Analysis of the role of media coverage under three different scenarios may help in formulating policies for public health programs in mitigating the influenza outbreak.