EVALUATION OF THE TUBERCULOSIS TRANSMISSION OF DRUG-RESISTANT STRAINS IN MAINLAND CHINA

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a mathematical model to evaluate the transmission of Tuberculosis with drug-resistant strains and with drug-sensitive strains. Based on the epidemic data from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, we first estimate the values of parameters in the model. Then the basic reproduction number of TB infection in the mainland China is calculated to be [Formula: see text] Since the basic reproduction number is greater than [Formula: see text] Tuberculosis spreads as an endemic in mainland China. Through our investigations, the basic reproduction number associated with drug-sensitive strains is less than 1, but the number of individuals infected by drug-resistant strains will still increase quickly, thus the epidemic is not under control. Moreover, increasing the vaccination coverage rate for newborns is not always beneficial for controlling TB prevalence in China. Whether vaccination effect is positive or negative depends on the relapse rate from the recovered state to the infected state. In summary, improving sanitation conditions, introducing efficient measures to detect the disease, and keeping the public informed about how to lower the chance of being infected and the current epidemic situation are essential in slowing down or eliminating Tuberculosis transmission.