FROM INDIVIDUAL HEALTH TO COMMUNITY HEALTH: TOWARDS MULTISCALE MODELING OF DIRECTLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIOUS DISEASE SYSTEMS

Abstract

In this paper, we present a new method for developing a class of nested multiscale models for directly transmitted infectious disease systems that integrates within-host scale and between-host scale using community pathogen load (CPL) as a new public health measure of a community’s level of infectiousness and as an indicator of the effectiveness of health interventions. The approach develops a multiscale modeling science base for directly transmitted infectious disease systems (where the inside-host environment’s biological entities such as cells, tissues, organs, body fluids, whole body are the reservoir of infective pathogen in the community) that is comparable to an existing multiscale modeling science base for environmentally transmitted infectious diseases (where the outside-host geographical environment’s physical entities such as soil, air, formites/contact surfaces, food and water are the reservoir of infective pathogen in the community) where pathogen load in the environment is explicitly incorporated into the model. This is achieved by assuming that infected hosts in the community are homogeneous and unevenly distributed microbial habitats. We illustrate the utility of this multiscale modeling methodology by evaluating the comparative effectiveness of HIV/AIDS preventive and treatment interventions as a case study.