Affiliation:
1. Institute for Biodiagnostics, National Research Council Canada, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3B 1Y6, Canada
Abstract
The importance of exogenous reinfection versus endogenous reactivation for the resurgence of tuberculosis (TB) has been a matter of ongoing debate. Previous mathematical models of TB give conflicting results on the possibility of multiple stable equilibria in the presence of reinfection, and hence the failure to control the disease even when the basic reproductive number is less than unity. The present study reconsiders the effect of exogenous reinfection, by extending previous studies to incorporate a generalized rate of reinfection as a function of the number of actively infected individuals. A mathematical model is developed to include all possible routes to the development of active TB (progressive primary infection, endogenous reactivation, and exogenous reinfection). The model is qualitatively analyzed to show the existence of multiple equilibria under realistic assumptions and plausible range of parameter values. Two examples, of unbounded and saturated incidence rates of reinfection, are given, and simulation results using estimated parameter values are presented. The results reflect exogenous reinfection as a major cause of TB emergence, especially in high prevalence areas, with important public health implications for controlling its spread.
Publisher
World Scientific Pub Co Pte Lt
Subject
Applied Mathematics,Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous),Ecology,Applied Mathematics,Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous),Ecology
Cited by
9 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献