MODELING THE TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF DAIRY CATTLE BRUCELLOSIS IN JILIN PROVINCE, CHINA

Author:

NIE JING1,SUN GUI-QUAN213,SUN XIANG-DONG4,ZHANG JUAN1,WANG NAN5,WANG YOU-MING4,SHEN CHAO-JIAN4,HUANG BAO-XU4,JIN ZHEN21

Affiliation:

1. Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shan'xi 030051, People's Republic of China

2. Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shan'xi 030006, People's Republic of China

3. School of Mathematical Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, People's Republic of China

4. China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center, Qingdao, Shandong 266032, People's Republic of China

5. Jilin Animal Disease Prevent and Control Center, Changchun, Jilin 130062, People's Republic of China

Abstract

Dairy cattle brucellosis is a chronic bacterial disease, which is caused by Brucella abortus and mainly characterized by abortion in dairy cattle. With the rapid development of breeding industry of milk cows in China, the infectious cases of dairy cattle brucellosis show an increasing trend. Particularly in Jilin province, the annual number of the positive cases of dairy cattle was only 3 cows in 1987, and went up to 168 cows in 2005. Based on the situation of the brucellosis infection in Jilin province, we propose an Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Virus (SEIV) dynamical model with outside transferred amount to describe the transmission of brucellosis amongst dairy cattle in this paper. We calculate the basic reproduction number R0 and prove that the equilibria are globally stable. Moreover, using the real data of nearly 20 years in Jilin province, we estimate the parameter values in the system. As a result, we can predict the number of infections as time increases. According to the prediction for the next 30 years, we can conclude that the disease will persist if we just take existing measures. If culling, sterilizing and decreasing the number of outer importing are used together, dairy cattle brucellosis will be well controlled.

Publisher

World Scientific Pub Co Pte Lt

Subject

Applied Mathematics,Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous),Ecology,Applied Mathematics,Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous),Ecology

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