MONTHLY PERIODIC OUTBREAK OF HEMORRHAGIC FEVER WITH RENAL SYNDROME IN CHINA

Abstract

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) spreading from rodent to human beings is a major public health problem in China, which causes high mortality rate. Data obtained from the China Ministry of Health shows that cases of HFRS in China exhibited monthly periodic outbreak. To well reveal the mechanisms about the outbreak of HFRS, we established a dynamical model to explain the periodic behaviors of HFRS in China. We obtained the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text], analyzed the dynamical behavior of the model, and used the model to fit the monthly data of HFRS cases. Our results demonstrated that periodic transmission rates and rodent periodic birth rate of HFRS in China can give rise to the periodic outbreak of HFRS, hence providing insights into taking measures to control HFRS in China.