A study on shipowner’s behavior intention to cross dam by integrating SEM-SD model

Abstract

Aiming at the navigation congestion of water conservancy projects, the shipowner’s psychological mechanism and behavior evolution are embedded into the dynamic model, which explores the evolution law using empirical data. The structural equation model (SEM) was constructed based on four variables: Shipowner personality, waiting time perception, congestion charging experience and anchorage environmental facilities (AEF). Taking the Three Gorges Project as an example, the influence relationship and degree are empirically tested. Then the dynamic evolution process was simulated by using the system dynamics (SD). The results suggest that the waiting time perception and congestion charge can weaken the shipowner’s intention, while the anchorage environment facilities can enhance the intention. The different personality characteristics will bring different effects, and the waiting time perception is the key intermediary. The psychological cost determines the dynamic evolution. Adjusting the factor can help the ship transfer between the navigable building and turning over the dam, realizing the balanced “double-channel” and alleviating navigation congestion.