CONSTRUCTION AND ANALYSIS OF STOCK MARKET MODEL USING ADG: AUTOMATICALLY DEFINED GROUPS

Abstract

In real market, the squares of stock price change rates have high autocorrelation, and the change rates show high peak and fat tail distribution. With the aim of analyzing the mechanism of the stock price change, we construct an artificial stock market composed of multiple agents whose investment strategies are represented by tree-shaped programs. The market is optimized by using a Genetic Programming so that the change of its stock price resembles that of "real" stock market statistically. In order to perform an efficient optimization and to analyze agents' behavior easily, we use ADG; Automatically Defined Groups previously proposed by authors. We show experimentally that complex changes such as real market appear in the proposed artificial market. Moreover we analyze the interaction of agents which causes realistic stock price changes.