Risk countermeasures of international wheat trade under the network reconstruction

Abstract

In today’s globalized world, grain is not only food, but also a strategic weapon, a trump card in the game of nations. As one of the three staple grains, international trade of wheat faces high supply risk. Each country should not only pay attention to the ways in which trade risks are spread, but also pay high attention to how resources are reallocated between countries to reduce losses from supply risks. Therefore, based on complex network theory and global wheat trade data, we construct an international wheat trade network (IWTN) and analyze the feedback of network robustness under random and targeted attacks. Then, we propose a global wheat trade redistribution model through the maximum entropy principle to simulate the resource redistribution among wheat trading countries under different supply risks. Finally, changes in trade relations among major countries are analyzed. The results of the study provide an important reference for the recovery of national resources after wheat supply risk and new ideas for researchers related to international trade.