Impact of risk factors on driving tours: A study based on CA model

Abstract

Road traffic risk is currently one of the most concerned problems of drive tourists. The motivation of this research is to quantify the impact of driving tour risk factors on road traffic safety and efficiency. Based on the characteristics of tourists’ aberrant driving behaviors while traveling by cars, the most frequently observed driving tour risk factors were explored, the conditions for the occurrence of various dangerous situations during road trips were defined, and a two-lane CA model considering drivers’ lane-changing and car-following behaviors was established to quantify the impact of single factors as well as the superposition of multi-factors on road traffic safety and efficiency. The simulation results indicate that the driving tour risk factors have significant negative impact on road traffic risk by increasing the frequencies of dangerous situations, inducing a reduction in traffic flow, and an increase in traffic congestion. In addition, the superposition of multi-factors, in particular the superposition of “fatigue driving” and “environment,” further increases the risk, specially aggravates the problems of traffic accidents and congestions.