A fuzzy rumor spreading model based on transmission capacity

Abstract

This paper proposes a rumor spreading model that considers three main factors: the event importance, event ambiguity, and the publics critical sense, each of which are defined by decision makers using linguistic descriptions and then transformed into triangular fuzzy numbers. To calculate the resultant force of these three factors, the transmission capacity and a new parameter category with fuzzy variables are determined. A rumor spreading model is then proposed which has fuzzy parameters rather than the fixed parameters in traditional models. As the proposed model considers the comprehensive factors affecting rumors from three aspects rather than examining special factors from a particular aspect. The proposed rumor spreading model is tested using different parameters for several different conditions on BA networks and three special cases are simulated. The simulation results for all three cases suggested that events of low importance, those that are only clarifying facts, and those that are strongly critical do not result in rumors. Therefore, the model assessment results were proven to be in agreement with reality. Parameters for the model were then determined and applied to an analysis of the 7.23 Yong–Wen line major transportation accident (YWMTA). When the simulated data were compared with the real data from this accident, the results demonstrated that the interval for the rumor spreading key point in the model was accurate, and that the key point for the YWMTA rumor spread fell into the range estimated by the model.