SENPR disinformation spreading model to discuss the control of the spread of disinformation in emergencies

Abstract

The spread of disinformation in online social networks (OSNs) poses a significant threat to maintaining normal social order. It is important to understand when and how intervention measures can control the spread of disinformation. We propose a novel information spreading model called susceptible, exposed, negative-infected, positive-infected, recovered population (SENPR) to describe the disinformation dynamics in OSNs under the intervention strategy. The model in this study considers that the susceptible population in the network is transformed into an exposed population through the influence of two information-dissemination methods that affect other susceptible people in the network. Subsequently, the stability of the model was analyzed to verify the validity of the obtained theoretical results. Finally, the influence of different parameters on the spread of disinformation is described, and corresponding management strategies to suppress the spread of false information in emergency situations are discussed. The results show that word-of-mouth is the main mode of communication in the “development” and “burst” stages of information spreading. The earlier the intervention is implemented, the sooner the number of people affected by word-of-mouth begins to decline and the sooner the spreading of disinformation reaches the saturation and decay stages.