Air Pollution Forecasting Model Based on Chance Theory and Intelligent Techniques

Abstract

A novel approach of weighted support vector regression (WSVR) technique with applied chance theory was proposed to build a robust forecasting model, called the chance weighted support vector regression (chWSVR) model. In order to forecast the particulate matter air pollutant of diameter less than 10 micrometers (PM10) one hour advance in the Greater Cairo Metropolitan Area (GCMA) in Egypt. The chance theory has advanced concepts pertinent to treat cases where both randomness and fuzziness play simultaneous roles at one time. The basic idea based on the proposed chWSVR model is assigning the chance weight value of the target variable, based on the chance theory, to its corresponding dataset point to become minimized in the objective function making that point more significant during the training process. Measuring data were collected and reprocessed from four monitoring stations located in GCMA and relative to the springs during the period from 2007 to 2010. The results of such model compared to similar ones built by other machine learning techniques, Random Forest and Bootstrap aggregating techniques. In all stations, comparing such models revealed that the proposed chWSVR model findings were promising in the forecasting of PM10 hourly concentration.