Prediction of Incident Solar Radiation Using a Hybrid Kernel Based Extreme Learning Machine

Abstract

Forecasting solar radiation for a given region is an emerging field of study. It will help to identify the places for installing large-scale photovoltaic-systems, designing energy-efficient buildings and energy estimation. The different machine learning kernel-based approaches for prediction problems uses either a local or global kernel. These models can provide either strong training capability or good generalization performance. In this paper, a new hybrid kernel is proposed using the combination of a local and global kernel. A novel algorithm Hybrid Kernel-based Extreme Learning Machine is proposed for predictive modelling of Incident Solar Radiation (ISR) time series using new hybrid kernel. The proposed algorithm uses the surface, atmospheric, cloud properties obtained from the MODIS instrument and observed ISR at time t – 1 to predict ISR at time t. This study is conducted for 41 diverse sites of Australia for the period of 2012–2015. Further, the proposed model is experimented with other time series datasets to prove its efficacy. It is shown that the proposed methodology outperforms five other benchmarking methods in terms of MAE and Willmott’s Index (WI). Therefore, the suggested approach can be used for modelling solar energy at a national scale using remotely-sensed satellite footprints.