SMALL WORLD AND SCALE FREE MODEL OF TRANSMISSION OF SARS

Abstract

We model transmission of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV) in Hong Kong with a complex small world network. Each node in the network is connected to its immediate neighbors and a random number of geographically isolated nodes. Transmission can only occur along these links. We find that this model exhibits dynamics very similar to those observed during the SARS outbreak in 2003. We derive an analytic expression for the rate of infection and confirm this expression with computational simulations. An immediate consequence of this quantity is that the severity of the SARS epidemic in Hong Kong in 2003 was due to ineffectual infection control in hospitals (i.e. nosocomial transmission). If all infectious individuals were isolated as rapidly as they were identified the severity of the outbreak would have been minimal.