Tools for sustainability assessment in island socio-ecological systems: an application to the Canary Islands

Abstract

An integral dynamic model, in combination with other methods (indicators, policy and scenario analysis), is presented as a tool for sustainability assessment in island socio-ecological systems (SES). The Fuerteventura sustainability model (FSM), tested for the 1996-2011, allows a better understanding of the dynamic interactions between sustainability indicators and other factors of this island. The FSM was first applied to analyse the vulnerability of this island to climate change for the 2012-2025 period; results point to the need for urgent measures to mitigate its effects on some of the analysed indicators. A set of policy measures was then assessed from the behaviour of nine indicators and their sustainability thresholds. Finally, the FSM facilitated the development of a dynamic model of the island of El Hierro, extrapolating the features common to both SES. We propose this to be a useful tool for the quantitative sustainability assessment and the management of real island socio-ecological systems.