Bayesian Network Models for PTSD Screening in Veterans

Abstract

The prediction of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) has gained a lot of interest in clinical studies. Identifying patients with a high risk of PTSD can guide mental healthcare workers when making treatment decisions. The main goal of this paper is to propose several Bayesian network (BN) models to assess the probability that a veteran has PTSD when first visiting a U.S. Department of Veteran Affairs (VA) facility seeking medical care. The current practice is to use a five-question test called PC-PTSD-5. We aim to use the PC-PTSD-5 test, which is currently administered to most incoming new patients, and demographic information, military service history, and medical history. We construct a Bayes information criterion score-based BN, a group L2-regularized BN (GL2-regularized BN), and a naïve Bayes BN to assess the probability that a patient has PTSD. The GL2-regularized BN is a new method for constructing a BN motivated by some of the challenges of analyzing this data set. A secondary goal is to identify which features are important in predicting PTSD. We discover that the following features help compute the probability of PTSD: PC-PTSD-5, service-connected flag, combat flag, agent orange flag, military sexual trauma flag, traumatic brain injury, and age. History: Accepted by Ram Ramesh, Area Editor for Data Science & Machine Learning. Supplemental Material: The software that supports the findings of this study is available within the paper and its Supplemental Information ( https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/suppl/10.1287/ijoc.2021.0174 ) as well as from the IJOC GitHub software repository ( https://github.com/INFORMSJoC/2021.0174 ). The complete IJOC Software and Data Repository is available at https://informsjoc.github.io/ .