An Adaptive Research Approach to COVID-19 Forecasting for Regional Health Systems in England

Author:

Betcheva Lidia1,Erhun Feryal1ORCID,Feylessoufi Antoine12ORCID,Fryers Peter3,Gonçalves Paulo14,Jiang Houyuan1ORCID,Kattuman Paul1,Pape Tom15,Pari Anees15ORCID,Scholtes Stefan1,Tyrrell Carina5

Affiliation:

1. Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1AG, United Kingdom;

2. School of Management, University College London, London E14 5AA, United Kingdom;

3. National Health Service England, Cambridge CB21 5XB, United Kingdom;

4. Faculty of Economics, Universitá della Svizzera Italiana, 6900 Lugano, Switzerland;

5. Public Health England, Cambridge CB21 5XA, United Kingdom

Abstract

A team of researchers worked with public health officials and clinical decision makers to create real-time models to help predict COVID-19 cases and hospital bed needs in the East of England. These models used up-to-date data and allowed officials to explore different scenarios and make informed plans. The models have also been applied in other countries and can be a valuable tool in future epidemics.

Publisher

Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)

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