Dynamic Attention Behavior Under Return Predictability

Abstract

We investigate the dynamic problem of how much attention an investor should pay to news in order to learn about stock-return predictability and maximize expected lifetime utility. We show that the optimal amount of attention is U-shaped in the return predictor, increasing with both uncertainty and the magnitude of the predictive coefficient and decreasing with stock-return volatility. The optimal risky asset position exhibits a negative hedging demand that is hump shaped in the return predictor. Its magnitude is larger when uncertainty increases but smaller when stock-return volatility increases. We test and find empirical support for these theoretical predictions.This paper was accepted by Gustavo Manso, finance.