Frontiers in Operations: The Confidence Trap in Operations Management Practices: Anatomy of Man-Made Disasters

Abstract

Problem definition: Reducing the likelihood of man-made disasters that cause harm to life, property, and the environment is a key societal goal. To that end, regulatory agencies are responsible for ensuring man-made disasters do not occur. In practice, to accomplish this task, regulators have to rely on and cooperate with operators. However, how much cooperation is optimal? In this study, we explore the prudent level of cooperation between operators and regulators to avoid man-made disasters and the role whistleblowers and other policy levers can play in maintaining it within a Goldilocks range. Methodology/results: We synthesize various theories and accounts of man-made disasters to construct a system dynamics model of the mechanisms that lead up to these unwanted outcomes. We employ simulations to uncover how changes in crucial parameters related to cooperation lead to different outcomes and influence the likelihood of the occurrence of man-made disasters. Managerial implications: We resist explanations for man-made disasters rooted in regulatory capture and offer instead a nuanced account rooted in excess cooperation between operators and regulators emerging as a result of everyday operational imperatives and constraints. Our findings indicate that absence of disasters leads operators and regulators to fall into a “confidence trap” that perpetuates limited regulatory oversight and excess cooperation and eventually leads to a disaster. To mitigate this tendency, we investigate, in particular, the role that timely whistleblowing and other policy levers can play in mitigating man-made disasters. We provide managerial and policy implications such as incentivizing and safeguarding whistleblowers, limits on the revolving door between operators and regulators, and more stringent operating and safety scientific standards. Overall, we offer a new frame and potentially fruitful frontier for the operations management community to explore. History: This paper has been accepted in the Manufacturing & Service Operations Management Frontiers in Operations Initiative. Supplemental Material: The online supplement is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.0034 .